Coronavirus: study shows extremely high dark rate for the COVID-19-cases
That in the case of infections with the new Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by a significant number of unreported cases is expected to apply in the professional world as the undisputed. A recent study by researchers at the University of Göttingen, comes to the conclusion that in Germany already at the end of March, probably about 460,000 people were infected.
“The number of infections with the novel Coronavirus is probably in all the affected countries, is considerably higher than previously assumed”; the scientists from the University of Göttingen reports. Estimated to be up to 31. March occurred in Germany already more than 460,000 infections, in the UK, two million, in Italy, three million, in Spain of five million and in the USA around ten million.
Worldwide, tens of millions of infected?
“To inspect the quality of the official case records, took advantage of the development economists, Dr. Christian Bommer and Professor Dr. Sebastian Vollmer estimates of the mortality of COVID-19, and the time to death from a recently in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases published a study,” reports the University of Göttingen. On the basis of the calculations show that the number of Infected at the end of March throughout the world have already been located in several tens of millions.
Nearly 16 percent of the infections in Germany, detected
Overall, only about six percent of all infections worldwide were previously shown to appreciate the göttingen-based scientists. In Germany, the value of which is estimated to be 15.6 per cent of the actual infections. This is due to the relatively extensive Tests compared to other countries. As will be recognized, the researchers reported, in Italy, only around 3.5 percent of the COVID-19-cases, and in Spain only 1.7 percent. Lower still, the discovery had rates in the United States (1.6 percent) and the UK (1.2 per cent).
South Korea, with a very low dark figure
Inadequate and delayed Tests might also explain why some European countries such as Italy and Spain are paying much higher casualties (compared to the reported confirmed cases) than in Germany, reports the researchers are more. As a positive example, you call also South Korea, where according to the calculations, nearly half of all SARS-CoV-2 infection has actually been discovered.
Worldwide, an extremely high number of unreported
During the two göttingen-based scientists to the conclusion that as of December 31. March March 2020 which have been infections in the world already in the two digit million range, the Numbers of Johns Hopkins University on the same day at less than 900,000 confirmed cases. This means that the vast majority of the infections remained undetected, stress the researchers.
Other studies with similar results
The study of Göttingen is not the first, suggesting high dark numerals at the COVID-19-cases, comments on the German medical journal, the new results. Already in mid-March, a research team led by Ruiyun Li from Imperial College London reported in the journal “Science” that demonstrably Infected about seven undetected cases could come. Overall, a lot to be said, therefore, that in this country, the majority of infections with the new Coronavirus remains to date undetected. (fp)